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Q&A: Green Car Pioneer Ron Cogan Offers Sage Insights

May 3, 2021 admin

Green Car Journal Publisher Ron Cogan at the 2020 Green Car Awards. He’s been covering the shift to environmentally friendly vehicles for three decades.

The automobile has transformed we live, work and play. Unfortunately, it’s also had a seriously detrimental impact on Planet Earth. And now, as it becomes more crucial to address issues like climate change, the automobile is in the crosshairs.

That’s a message many have come to just lately. Not Ron Cogan. The veteran automotive journalist was among the first to recognize the need to clean up the car, in 1992 launching Green Car Journal. Where some have focused exclusively on electrified vehicles, pure battery-electric models, in particular, Cogan and his magazine have looked at all the various green car technologies that have come — and, in many cases, gone — during the past three decades.

The latest issue of Green Car Journal focuses specifically on battery-electric vehicles. But, as is Cogan’s style, it takes a pragmatic, even somewhat skeptical, look at this potentially game-changing technology, recognizing there are still many challenges to be overcome before BEVs can clearly replace the time-tested internal combustion engine.

Cogan spoke to TheDetroitBureau.com about his years covering the green car world and what he sees coming in the years ahead.

Cogan’s enjoyed a front-row seat, watching and writing about the shift from ICE-powered vehicles to electrified models in the U.S.

TheDetroitBureau: These days, everyone is writing about electric vehicles but you’ve been at this for a long time, haven’t you? And don’t you take something of a broader look when it comes to environmentally friendly vehicles?

Ron Cogan: Green Car Journal, which launched in 1992, has been all about options, everything that’s happening in the green space, whether it’s methanol, ethanol and natural gas, even high fuel-efficiency gasoline. Now, there’s a huge push towards electrification. It wasn’t our call to tell people what to drive. With our 30^th birthday coming up we wanted to let people read different opinions from industry leaders.

TDB: We now have General Motors CEO Mary Barra setting a transition to all-electric vehicles and announcing a second battery plant. Is this the year of the tipping point for battery-electric vehicles?

Cogan: I would agree there’s a tipping point going on in the sense that there’s a major commitment by a lot of automakers. It’s gone beyond lip service. For the industry, the tipping point is here. The question is whether it is a consumer tipping point yet. Only so many people are willing to step up to pure electric vehicles. More see a hybrid as the way to go because it’s so seamless, and some to plug-in hybrids. But have we reached a tipping point for consumers? I’m not so sure.

Cogan notes that hybrids provide a level of convenience that pure EVs cannot.

TDB: Yet BEVs do seem to be gaining a lot of momentum.

Cogan: Well, the range issues is being overcome to a large degree, But even with 250 miles, on a long trip you have to plan ahead (to find places to charge), which is why I think plug-in hybrids are going to be pretty huge. When you can’t plug in you’re not limited, so I think that category is really going to expand. With a plug-in you can do everyday driving in electric but switch to internal combustion when you have to go farther. I think it’s a win-win. And it will get more people into buying electric vehicles.

TDB: I find that the best way to promote electric vehicles is to get people into electric vehicles. They’re often surprised by the performance, for one thing.

Cogan: Yeah, today’s electric vehicles are pretty amazing given what they offer — everything a combustion vehicle can offer and more. The launch in an electric vehicle can be pretty exciting and some companies, like Tesla, are keying in on that, talking about how they can beat a Ferrari on track and all that. I think that’s surprising a lot of people.

Cogan is quick to note that EVs are not the only way to improve the efficiency of vehicles. His publication’s honored several diesels.

TDB: I have more and more people asking if this is the right time to buy an electric vehicle. Many worry that, like with an iPhone, if they buy today something better will soon come out and they’ll regret it. What would you tell them?

Cogan: The technology, the range, all of that will improve over time, as will the cost which will continue to go down incrementally. So, it’s a tough question. If you find the right vehicle that appeals to you, it makes sense, go ahead and buy the vehicle. There are some great choices out there now and there are going to be more coming up. The jump to 250 miles (which most new BEVs are offering) is huge and there are going to be more and more charging stations coming online. True, the nature of it is that there’s always going to be something better. But do you never buy an electric vehicle because of that?

TDB: Doesn’t that make an argument for leasing, rather than buying? You can move to something newer and better in a few years — and not worry about trade-in values.

Cogan: I think leasing is the ideal way to go with electric vehicles. It means you don’t have to take as much of a risk. You know what your payments are. You know when you’re going to turn it in. And then, you can move on to the next generation of electric vehicles. Leasing takes the risk out.

Green Car Publisher Ron Cogan, Chevy Marketing Director Steve Mojoras and the 2016 Volt, which was honored by the Green Car Awards.

TDB: Let’s talk about batteries — in particular, next-generation batteries. Honda, Ford and others are all talking about solid-state batteries (which supposedly will be lighter, deliver longer range and shorter charging times and even reduce the risk of fire). Are they real? And will they live up to expectations?

Cogan: It seems that if solid-state comes close to all the promises it would put BEVs over the top, making all the difference in the world. Solid-state, from what we hear, is the ideal technology.

TDB: What would you estimate will be the BEV share of the market by 2030? And could it be even bigger than people are forecasting now?

Cogan: It’s tough to make a prediction, and I try to avoid that. But automakers and other interests are pushing for them and there’s a lot of interest in setting up a nationwide rapid charging network. All of that takes us in the direction where we know there’s going to be significantly more electric vehicles sold by then. But many things could influence the fate of gasoline vehicles. How’s the price of gas? If gas prices stay low there’ll be less incentive for electric vehicles. Technology will influence things. A recession could, as well. Legislation clearly will have an influence, especially if it’s a disincentive to drive on gasoline.

Honda has been at the forefront of fuel-cell vehicles with the Clarity.

TDB: On the subject of politics, the Biden administration wants to have 500,000 charging stations in place by 2030. Could that mean a faster growth rate for electric?

Cogan: If we get the range to drive on battery like you would on gasoline and you have a network of rapid chargers, suddenly, your functionality is increased exponentially. But there’s no way yet to know if the government is going to create (that public charging network). Administrations change. Agendas change. So, I don’t put stock into what you can count on as far as legislation matters.

TDB: But the Biden administration is clearly making a lot of proposals to promote electric vehicles. Do you like what you’re seeing?

Cogan: Yeah, as far as I can tell. I mean, we’re going to see how this all unfolds. This administration has a more proactive agenda for environmental issues in general and clean cars, specifically, than the previous administration. But I have to say you can’t always count on that. Back under the Obama administration, he wanted a million electric vehicles by 2015. It was never going to happen because there weren’t enough vehicles to make it happen. (But) I look at all of these things (Biden is proposing) as positive … a direction that seems to make sense for electrified vehicles.

Cogan drove a GM EV1 for a full year.

TDB: You started publishing Green Car Journal in 1992. Looking back on the last three decades, what were biggest surprises, the things you didn’t count on early on?

Cogan: One of the milestones was the debut of the GM Impact prototype and then the actual production of the GM EV1, I drove one of those for a year. It was an amazing car to be in on the evolution of electric vehicles. It was also interesting to note how hydrogen was big and then (see automakers) backpedaling, Now they’re interested in hydrogen again. It’s gaining momentum again.

One of the (other) things that surprises me is that we’re seeing such a push for electrification, at the extreme high end of both luxury vehicles and sports cars and exotics.

TDB: To wrap up, is the age of the internal combustion engine coming to an end?

Cogan: I don’t think you can discount internal combustion because it keeps getting better and better. And I don’t think you can discount hybrids and plug-in hybrids and focus just on battery-electric vehicles. Those are all a big part of the solution. It may have narrowed from when we started publishing. It’s no longer really about ethanol and natural gas and propane. It’s really about electrification and significantly more efficient internal combustion engines — and a combination of the two. It’s going to be even more exciting in the years ahead seeing how it will play out.

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Bow. Wow! One-Bow Design Takes Mercedes EQS in an Entirely New Direction

March 27, 2021 admin

The new Mercedes-Benz EQS battery-electric sedan makes its formal debut April 15.

One thing’s for sure: there’ll be no mistaking the new Mercedes EQS sedan when it rolls down the street.

Think of the EQS as the all-electric alternative to the German automaker’s familiar S-Class flagship. But you clearly won’t confuse the two when it reaches showrooms in autumn. Some new battery-electric vehicles share the same design language as conventional, gas-powered products. With EQS, Mercedes goes off in an entirely new direction, one it’s been hinting at with concept vehicles like the 2019 Vision EQS.

The production model adopts what the automaker calls a “one-bow” design. It takes the look of the coupe-like Mercedes CLS to extremes. The result could have rolled off the set of a sci-fi film. But there are practical benefits in terms of range and interior roominess, as well.

“We said we have to go further” than just packing batteries into a conventional looking product,” Steffen Kohl, Mercedes’ director of advanced exterior style, said during a media webinar. The EQS “carries the future of Mercedes-Benz,” he added, noting the “one-bow” language of the EQS will strongly influence other products to come from the new, all-electric Mercedes-EQ sub-brand.

Plenty of power and range

Robert Lesnik led the exterior design effort for Mercedes new EQS battery-electric sedan.

EQS rides on a skateboard-like platform, mimicking virtually all new battery-electric vehicles. Its batteries, motors and other key electrical components sit below the floorboards.

The automaker will reveal full powertrain details during a formal unveiling April 15. But EQS uses twin motors, one on each axle, drawing power from a 108 kilowatt-hour battery pack. That provides about 435 miles of range using the European WLTP test cycle. The EPA rating should come in somewhere about 350 miles, according to industry observers.

The layout moves the sedan’s wheels close to the vehicle’s corners. It also frees up space where a traditional gas or diesel engine would be mounted, providing significant flexibility to the Mercedes design team.

Shorter wheelbase, longer cabin

The cab-forward design features a short nose, the angled, one-piece aluminum clamshell hood rising aggressively to flow into a steeply raked windshield. Instead of a traditional, two- or three-box layout, the look is like that of a single bow line, explained Robert Lesnik, who led the exterior design effort.

The Mercedes-Benz Vision EQS concept provided a framework for the company’s new electric luxury sedan.

“EQS will be the world’s best production car ever in terms of aerodynamics,” with a drag coefficient of 0.20 significantly better than even the sleekest of today’s supercars, he explained.

The effect “looks optically lower than it is,” Lesnik added.

The front end features a new grille with “abstracted, three-dimensional star pattern(s),” according to Mercedes. It’s framed by slit-like headlamps flowing into the front quarter panels.

“When people ask why we need a grille anymore,” Lesnik explains that it is “not an air intake. It’s a face.”

“Coming from the future”

The side panels lack the normal creases found on conventional Mercedes models, though the greenhouse does pinch in towards the trunk, giving the EQS a sense of muscularity.

The new EQS features Mercedes’ newly introduced Hyperscreen technology.

Around back, the most distinctive feature is a light band connecting what Mercedes calls “curved, 3D helix” taillamps.

From nose to tail, the new EQS measures 5.2 meters, or 204.7 inches. That’s about 3.5 inches shorter than the U.S. version of the latest Mercedes S-Class. But the electric sedan has more room for four passengers, its cabin pushed forward into what would normally be the engine compartment.

As distinctive as the exterior might be, the interior takes things even further, said Peter Balko, who oversaw development of the cabin. “We wanted our interior to be modern,” he explained, “as if coming from the future.”

Buyers will have numerous options

Buyers have several key options to choose from. The showpiece layout uses the new hyperscreen concept first shown on the latest S-Class. It features a seamless digital cluster running the entire width of the instrument panel. The organically shaped glass blends three different displays, starting with the digital gauge cluster, the touchscreen infotainment screen and a separate display for the front passenger.

The gauge cluster on the new EQS is configurable based on the wants of the driver.

EQS offers a digital gauge cluster and a large, free-floating, Tesla-like infotainment screen for those seeking a more conventional look. The space in front of the passenger can be outfitted with an assortment of different woods and fabrics and even a version of the Star Pattern grille.

The EQS will “touch almost all of your senses,” said Kohl. Among other things, the product development team has come up with three distinctive, user-programmable “soundscapes.”

Sounding off

While battery cars aren’t entirely silent, they are significantly quieter than vehicles with conventional internal combustion engines. Motorists can enjoy the lack of noise or they can opt for one of the soundscapes, “depending upon the emotions of the moment,” said lead sound engineer Thomas Kuppers.

Silver Waves is meant to be soft and soothing;
Vivid Flux is “shimming and explosive,” a bit “techie but (with) warmth,” said Kuppers; and
Roaring Pulse is “pretty raw, with “the growl of thunder,” especially under aggressive driving.

“We haven’t finished yet,” Kuppers added, noting that, “There will be new soundscapes over the life of the vehicle that we will download through over-the-air updates.”

The new EQS will borrow from the conventional S-Class by also appealing to the sense of smell, Mercedes officials noted. The new BEV will have the ability to inject scents into the cabin, including some designed specifically for the new model.

Q&A: Unite Digital Chief Strategy Officer Dave Zuchowski

March 25, 2021 admin

Unite Digital’s Dave Zuchowski offered insight into the future of automotive retailing during his session with TheDetroitBureau.

Since the very earliest days of the auto industry, motorists have shopped for cars much the same way as they do today. Or, at least, how they did until the COVID pandemic struck. During the past 12 months there’s been a massive shift to online shopping and few expect to see a return to the previous “norm.”

That’s setting in motion a dramatic transformation on the retail side of the business, starting with what dealers do and how they make money. It’s also expected to bring a sharp decline in the number of dealers serving the U.S. market, with perhaps 30% of today’s retailers closing shop or selling out to chains like AutoNation in the not-too-distant future, says Dave Zuchowski.

Zuchowski has spent four decades in the auto business, including a run as CEO of Hyundai Motor America. After a few years working as a consultant, Zuchowski took a new assignment last year, signing on as the chief strategy officer for Unite Digital, a startup that works with dealers on the challenges of working in a digital retail environment. He spoke to TheDetroitBureau.com about what he sees coming in the new world of automotive retailing.

Impact of the internet

Shopping online rose during the pandemic, and is likely here to stay.

TheDetroitBureau.com: We see more and more car buyers going online, whether to do their homework or to complete a purchase. What are the challenges for dealers?

Zuchowski: Inertia is a huge issue. Dealers are resistant to change because it’s a high-dollar, top-line business. If all else fails, revenue cures a lot of evils. So, they’re very reluctant to change because what they’ve had has worked for a very long time. They’re very reluctant to walk away from what worked and that, to me, is the biggest problem. (But) what really matters is what the consumer wants and the biggest change is that they’re not putting up with what we put up with all these years.

TDB: COVID clearly sped up change on the retail side, didn’t it?

Zuchowski: You have all the overlying conditions (for change) and what happened is that dealers reported record profits in the midst of the pandemic. They went through the process, line by line, and they renegotiated costs. They consolidated jobs and responsibilities. They cut back on inventory. They flattened and streamlined the organization. That happens in a downturn. But what surprised everybody was that consumers really turned out to like shopping at home, having a single point of contact and contactless delivery and concierge services, all the things that came out of necessity.

Dealers saw marketing and inventory costs come down and that let them have very targeted, customized marketing campaigns rather than broad-based campaigns that are extremely expensive and pressure margins and do bad things. They went from a supply-side model to a demand-side model. And they realized that though volume went down, margins came back up. People are willing to pay more for that personal touch, even as expenses go down. Dealers have done this before when the economy goes down. The difference is that this time, with COVID, customers responded very favorably.

More and more dealers are bolstering their online sales resources.

TDB: So, will the car business go the way of Amazon, with everything done online?

Zuchowski: Digital retailing doesn’t mean 100% of the people will do 100% of the transaction online. It means we need to create a parallel path, replicating every sales process that can be done in the store and make it available online. Then you let the consumer decide how much to do in the store and how much to do online. I don’t think 100% will want to do everything online but I think it’ll be the distinct majority in the not-too-distant future. I’m talking three to five years.

Other changes in retailing

TDB: It’s not just the pandemic forcing change in automotive retailing, though. What about the coming age of the electric vehicle? We’ve seen Volvo, for one, say they expect to sell all their future battery-electric cars entirely online.

Zuchowski: The traditional retail model has been push, rather than pull. It’s supply, rather than demand oriented. In other industries, it’s completely the opposite. Traditional dealers have a lot of staff. They’re top heavy, with an average of two managers for every sales person. It’s a structure that’s very expensive and no longer what the consumer wants. They want a single point of contact. They don’t want to go into a store and deal with a salesperson, then negotiate with somebody else and then deal with somebody handling (finance and insurance). They want someone who can handle things, soup to nuts.

TDB: They also want a set, single price, don’t they?

Nissan@Home now allows consumers to handle the entire purchase of a new vehicle online.

Zuchowski: I think “one price” is a misnomer but we certainly have to decrease the variability between transaction prices. Customers know from the internet what a dealer paid for the vehicle so there isn’t nearly as much dependence on negotiations.

The dealership of the future

TDB: What does this mean in terms of the number of dealerships going forward and the number of employees?

Zuchowski: A great question. I firmly believe the 30% of dealers who don’t get it and are slow to react will go out of business or get consolidated. The new number will be 70% of what we have today.

When I started out in 1980 there might have been 24,000, maybe 25,000 dealers and now there’s 17,000. (Long term) it’s probably closer to 12,000. You’ll have dealers controlling entire market areas with one central facility and maybe inventory in a storage area, service in a commercial area and maybe a few boutique-style showrooms in high-traffic areas. You’ll have fewer stores with smaller inventory, fewer service bays. The stores will look different and they’ll go to different locations for different functions. There’ll be fewer individual owners and more dealer groups owning a bunch of stores.

TDB: Will things be different for those dealers who remain?

All pure electric Volvo models to be available online only

Zuchowski: There’s always going to be an important role for the dealer in this country. But that role will change. Dealerships essentially will turn into delivery and service centers. I would be very reluctant to make huge investments if I were a dealer, say, for a new, $5 million facility. The way a dealer will make money down the road will change. And there will different ways to get revenue. But even with volumes going down, margins could go up. They won’t have to carry 1,000 cars in stock and spend $100,000 a month on advertising, for one thing.

TDB: Let’s wrap up by talking used versus new.

Zuchowski: It’s a mistake not to look at the business holistically. Every year about 45 million to 50 million vehicles are being sold and when new cars are doing well used cars are off. And when used cars are doing well new car sales are off.

We’ve had an affordability problem for some time but there’s always been a way around it. We’ve now stretched out payments as far as you can go. And we’ve played with rates, now with the lowest interest rates on record. How many people can afford a $40,000 vehicle, especially if your interest rates aren’t at zero percent? Now, all the new technology isn’t free and there are all the regulations to comply with, and you have to add all that to the price of a vehicle. But we’re running out of ways to manage payments. I think used will gain more steam because new vehicle affordability will become a bigger and bigger problem as interest rates go up.

Jeep Brings Back the Legendary Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer

March 11, 2021 admin

The legend is back for 2022. The Grand Wagoneer returns to the Jeep line-up after more than three decades away.

The Jeep Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer are back – and luxurious.

The long-awaited debut of what will now be the brand’s flagship model is scheduled to take place in Los Angeles Thursday morning and what awaits those who turn is a full sized, 8-passenger luxury vehicle ready to challenge names like Navigator and Escalade, among others, for the big dollars spent in the segment.

“We announced we were going to bring an American icon back and expand it into the premium world,” said Christian Meunier, Jeep brand CEO, during an earlier background webinar about the vehicles. The new models, aside from the names, share very little in common with their predecessors. The original Wagoneer was a go-anywhere and haul a lot of stuff while doing it vehicle.

The new Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer are supposed to deliver a unique customer experience, separate from their more rugged, off-roading siblings. Thee models are not “simply another Jeep,” Meunier explained. They’re definitely not as these are the first Jeeps that are not trail-rated, although officials attribute that to the size of the vehicle more so than their capability.

It’s a new day for Jeep

The new 8-passenger full-size SUV sets a new benchmarked for the Jeep brand.

The new models are “born from Jeep, but their character is different from the rest of the brand,” he said, noting their development stems from the four C’s: culture, consumer, category and character. The culture comes from the brand’s history of innovation and craftsmanship Jeep looks to replicate with the new models. The company targeted a specific type of buyer — the consumer — for the new luxury utes.

“These people live life to the fullest. They enjoy every bit of it. They don’t let friends, status symbols or someone else’s expectation define them, or limit them,” Meunier noted. “No, they are in charge, and they are free. They are free to follow their own path and change it as many times as they want. They don’t seek the perfect life.

“Perfection to them is cold, because it is something unremarkable rational and repeatable. Their life is beautiful because it’s unique, it’s emotional and it’s intense. In a collection of imperfect moments that become memorable experiences. When you leave such a fulfilling life you choose a vehicle with a personality.”

Jeep achieved “category,” the second C, a long time ago as the Wagoneer was a founding father of the large, sport-utility segment. The name carries with it a certain connotation or expectation. The company is confident the new versions of the vehicle will carry forward a unique and notable reputation like its ancestors, but different.

Volkswagen Ponders Porsche Offering to Fund EVs

February 18, 2021 admin

Volkswagen reportedly is considering an offering of Porsche stock to help fund its $86 billion EV plan.

Bringing EVs to market costs big money, forcing some automakers to go public to raise cash – Volkswagen possibly being next.

Reports suggest that VW is pondering a listing of Porsche AG. The money raised designed to help with the roll out more than $86 billion in electric vehicles set to come mid-decade. German business publication Manager Magzin reported the plan is only in the discussion stage.

The listing, which reportedly could net as much $30 billion, would only be for part of the sports car maker and wouldn’t occur until next year, the publication reported. Some analysts believe if Porsche AG were to be spun off entirely it could be worth more than $120 billion.

Volkswagen’s not alone

VW says it will roll out 50 electrified vehicles across all its brands by 2025.

The rumor comes on the heels of Daimler AG’s move to separate its truck unit into its own separate company in the third quarter of this year. The idea is to “unlock the full potential” of the businesses, which some analysts believe means some sort of offering to raise cash.

Once the split occurs, the car unit will need to fund its ongoing expansion of its electrification effort and that could conceivably come in the form of issuing new shares. The new business will be named Mercedes-Benz AG.

Plenty of other automakers have benefitted from IPOs, notably Ferrari and Aston Martin. However, with the influx of new EV makers moving closer to production around the world, the final push to the finish line requires a massive amount of cash.

EV makers raising money

Nascent electric vehicle companies have been scurrying around looking to add more money to their coffers, the latest company added to the list is Rivian. The company raised more than $8 billion from private investors since the start of 2019, including a recent round netting the company $2.65 billion in fresh money.

Volkswagen has designated $86 billion to bring more than 50 EVs to market in the next few years, including the ID.4.

However, as the company is closing in on building pre-production and early run production electric trucks and SUVs at its plant in Normal, Illinois, the idea of having enough liquidity to get through the process must weigh heavy on the top minds there.

With all of the other EV makers raising money through reverse mergers with blank-check companies and getting listed and a fat check, Rivian appears to be on board. Reports suggest the company is preparing for a conventional IPO this fall that could net it as much as $50 billion.

Other EV companies that have secured additional funding through offerings include Fisker, Lordstown Motors, Faraday Future, Lucid Motors and Nikola Motors. Also, the king of EV mountain repeatedly offered new shares to raise funds.

New Vehicle Sales Slowed in January Despite Improved Retail Results

January 27, 2021 admin

Depressed fleet sales are putting a drag on January’s results, offsetting improved retail results.

Depressed fleet demand continues to hobble the overall demand for new vehicles, leaving the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in January 5.5% behind year ago levels, according to new estimates by analysts.

Conversely January retail sales are expected to increase slightly, according to TrueCar. U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are forecast to see an increase of 0.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. However, that increase isn’t going to be enough to offset the impact of the depressed fleet market.

TrueCar, the car-buying help service, expects the total SAAR to drop to an annual rate of 15.9 million units from 16.8 million units in January 2020 just before the COVID-19 pandemic sent the car business into a tailspin.

(New year brings new deals on new cars, trucks and utes.)

“Consumer activity has kept the vehicle market on a strong recovery path in recent months. Retail sales, which generally account for four-out-of-five vehicles sold in the U.S. market, are expected to remain strong in January,” noted a report from Cox Automotive.

The Cox report said positive economic news, coupled with improving consumer confidence, is helping rebuild both interest and ability to buy.

“Entering 2021 with retail sales in line with last year is a big win for the automotive industry,” said Nick Woolard, lead industry analyst at TrueCar.

“However, while retail sales have rebounded, rental fleets remained depressed and continue to interrupt fleet sales. As a result, fleet sales are struggling to come back to pre-pandemic levels and are driving total unit sales down,” Woolard said.

In addition, the average transaction prices for new vehicles are projected to be up 4.2%, or $1,509, from a year ago but down 4.5%, or $1,759, from December 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach approximately $39 billion for January 2021, down 4.4% from a year ago.

(Despite production cuts due to chip shortages vehicle inventory remains stable.)

“The automotive industry continues to reap the benefits of continued strength in retail demand with lower incentive spend.

Improved consumer confidence and other factors continue point to continued retail sales strength.

“A handful of brands such as Ford, Genesis, GMC, Ram and Toyota, appear to be in the coveted quadrant of both retail growth as well as incentive decline. This is mostly driven by new product and being in the right segments or a combination of the two,” added Woolard.

Woolard said average transaction prices have finally come down from the record-setting highs we saw last month but are still higher than this time last year. Of the top carmakers, only Kia has an average transaction price below $30,000, TrueCar reported.

Alain Nana-Sinkam, vice president of Industry Insights at TrueCar, said the trend is most likely to continue so buyers are going to adjust their buying process in response.

“As new vehicle prices rise, we may see more price-conscious shoppers gravitate back towards smaller segments or the used car market due to growing concerns around affordability.”

(Auto sales gain traction as Americans avoid mass transit.)

Fleet sales for January 2021 are expected to be down 23.7% from a year ago but used vehicle sales for January 2021, which are critical for setting the price of leases on new vehicles, are expected to reach 3.2 million, up 1% from a year ago and up 10% from December 2020.

First Drive: 2021 Volkswagen ID.4 First Edition

December 18, 2020 admin

Volkswagen offered an early look at the 2021 ID.4. The prototype more than hinted at the impressive crossover coming. (Photo credit: Larry Printz)

The forthcoming appearance of the 2021 Volkswagen ID.4 is far from a surprise if you pay attention to auto shows. It’s here that VW clearly proclaimed what it had up its corporate sleeve with a series of ID electric concept vehicles.

And given the consumer proclivity for crossovers, particularly compact crossovers, it’s little surprise that the first in a series of Volkswagen EVs under the ID sub-brand will appear in March 2021 in the form of the ID.4 compact crossover.

Overview: Offered in base, Pro and First Edition trims, Volkswagen allowed TheDetroitBureau.com to briefly drive a First Edition pre-production prototype, although Volkswagen is still finalizing the vehicle’s software before it enters production.

Initially, the two-row crossovers will be built in Germany, but that will change come 2022. In November 2018, Volkswagen began an $800 million expansion at its Chattanooga, Tennessee plant for a new body shop and battery manufacturing site for the ID.4.

The 2021 VW ID.4 prototype provided an early look at what’s to come next year. (Photo credit: Larry Printz)

Exterior: Given the solid, structural boxiness of VW’s crossovers, the ID.4 is a refreshing change of pace, with flowing, sensual lines offset by a gray accent to the vehicle’s side profile that visually lowers the car. The ID.4’s front-end recalls the new Golf despite the lack of a grille, and the overall presence is cutting-edge contemporary without being excessive. Uniquely, the ID.4’s charging port is not up front like many EVs; it’s in the rear where you would expect to find the fuel filler door. VW includes ports for its charger as well as a DC fast charger.

All models come with a body color roof, black roof rails, 19-inch aluminum alloy wheels, heated side mirrors and washer nozzles, and, on all-wheel-drive models, a heated windshield. The $4,500 Statement package adds a panoramic fixed-glass roof, premium LED projector headlights with adaptive front-lighting, power-folding side mirrors with puddle lamps, a 12-inch touchscreen, SiriusXM satellite radio with a three-month trial, an adjustable trunk floor, and a power tailgate. The $1,500 Gradient package upgrades the Statement package with 20-inch wheels, and a black roof with silver roof rails.

(VW begins battle with Tesla for EV sales in China with two new ID.4 models.)

Interior: Like other EVs, the ID.4’s driveline components are mostly beneath the vehicle, allowing for a flat floor and generous interior space given the vehicle’s overall length, which nearly five inches shorter than a Tiguan. Yet it has 99.9 cubic feet of passenger volume, and 30.3 cubic feet of cargo space, expanding to 64.2 cubic feet with the seats folded.

“… Given the solid, structural boxiness of VW’s crossovers, the ID.4 is a refreshing change of pace …”

The First Edition’s fixed Panoramic glass roof made the cabin feel even larger. There’s ample legroom front and rear for even the tallest of passengers. The ID.4’s two-tone ambience is starkly modern, but less barren than comparable Teslas. Material quality is impressive.

The switchgear on the 2021 Volkswagen ID.4 prototype is almost entirely capacitive, (Photo credit: Larry Printz)

Thoughtfully, designers have filled the ID.4 with little conveniences. The center console has a sloped compartment for wireless charging, as well as wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto. The console bin has removable dividers that form a cupholder.

The back of the front seatbacks has small secondary pockets to hold smartphones. And the base of the B-pillars has tie-down points, in case you fold down the rear seats and need to secure cargo. The rear cargo deck’s floor opens to reveal a shallow secondary compartment and another compartment that holds the charger and tire patch kit. There is no spare tire, but there a number of grocery bag hooks and USB-C ports.

The instrument panel contains capacitive switches, but there’s no haptic feedback to alert you of activation. Nonetheless, their spare design was refreshing, as there’s none of the visual clutter that so many designers seem to insist upon. Once deciphered, they’re easy enough to use. The instrument cluster is mounted on the steering column, and telescopes along with the steering column. The transmission switch is mounted next to the cluster, and actuates by twisting it forward for drive, and rearward for reverse. A button on its side engages park.

Standard features include a 10-inch touchscreen, rain-sensing wipers, auto-dimming rearview mirror, dual-zone automatic climate control, keyless entry, and a heated steering wheel and a 4G LTE-enabled hotspot for up to four devices.

(VW ID.4 charges into American market takes aim at Tesla.)

The roomy front seat of the the ID.4 prototype sports a very modern, but not edgy look that supports the exterior look. (Photo credit: Larry Printz)

Powertrain: Uniquely for a modern Volkswagen, the ID.4 is rear-wheel drive, the first since the original VW Beetle and its offspring. An 82 kW AC Permanent-Magnet Synchronous Motor and 1-speed automatic transmission is mounted to the rear axle, and generates 201 horsepower, and 208 pound-feet of torque. A second motor will be added to the front axle later in the model year to provide 302 hp and all-wheel drive.

Volkswagen decided to use rear-wheel drive because it allows for a more powerful motor, negating any chance of torque steer, a common problem with front-wheel-drive EVs, according to Gunnar Wynarski, an engineer with Volkswagen in Chattanooga, Tennessee. In addition, engineers moved a lot of components out of the instrument panel and under the hood to add a margin of extra safety and provide more interior space.

The EPA rates the ID.4 at 104 MPGe city/89 MPGe mpg highway/97 MPGe combined, with a 250-mile range. Charging time from five to 80% takes about 38 minutes on a fast charger, according to Wynarski. Volkswagen also includes three years of fast charging with Electrify America at no additional cost.

Technology and Safety: Standard driver assistance technology includes anti-lock braking system, electronic stability control, forward collision warning, autonomous emergency braking with pedestrian monitoring, blind-spot monitor, rear-traffic alert; adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping assist, travel assist; and emergency assist, dynamic road sign display, park distance control, and automatic high-beam control.

Driving impressions: Our initial drive was brief and confined to the sort of mundane interstates and clogged thoroughfares that constitute daily driving. Clearly, the ID.4 has this sort of driving licked, as its instant torque lends the ID.4 a lively feel. The new MEB platform packs the batteries down low between the axles, which provides for a solid, weighty feel that ably balances compliance and control, while the absence of an internal combustion engine and any semblance of road noise made for a blessedly quiet driving experience. And the accelerator and brake pedals are whimsically embossed with play and pause symbols.

There was no chance to push the ID.4 through more abrupt maneuvers or measure long-term seat comfort or control logic. That will have to wait for a full road test.

(Volkswagen offers early look at ID.4 interior.)

Wrap Up: With the ID.4, Volkswagen has fielded an extremely competitive new entry in burgeoning compact crossover EV segment, one that could quickly grow to outsell its conventional VW siblings.

Ford Develops Range-Extender Option for Electric F-150

October 5, 2020 admin

One of the schematics included in the Ford F-150 Electric patent application.

By mid-decade we could see as many as nine or more all-electric pickups from a mix of startups like Rivian and established automakers, including Ford. All face at least one significant challenge, however: a lack of range, especially when towing or hauling a heavy load of cargo.

A newly discovered Ford patent suggests the Detroit automaker might have a solution, however, a drop-in range extender that can be mounted in the bed of the upcoming F-150 Electric where the locking toolbox option normally would go.

Filed Sept. 15 and described in the application to the U.S. patent office as “electric vehicles with removable and interchangeable range extending generators,” the concept isn’t entirely new. Several vehicles already have gone the onboard generator route, including the Chevrolet Volt and the BMW i3 REx.

(Ford planning mid-2022 launch for F-150 EV.)

The generator could be disguised as a removable toolbox.

This approach is distinctly different from a plug-in hybrid where a vehicle pairs an electric drive system with an internal combustion engine that can fire up, either to boost power or to take over when the vehicle’s batteries run down. Significantly, there is a direct link between the gas or diesel engine and the vehicles wheels.

With a range extender, there is no direct link between the engine and the wheels. Its only purpose is to generate current that can be used to either recharge a drained battery or to power the vehicle’s electric motors.

In the case of a pickup, an internal combustion engine could serve a third purpose, functioning as a generator for tools, lights and other goods at a work site. The newly introduced versions of the 2021 Ford F-150, including the all-new hybrid model, will feature the ability to turn the truck into a rolling generator.

Part of the Ford patent application.

The good news with EVs is that batteries are becoming both more energy dense – translating into greater range – as well as less expensive. Manufacturers are promising to deliver at least 300 miles for the various all-electric pickups that have been announced by manufacturers such as Tesla, Ford, Rivian, Bollinger and Lordstown Motors. General Motors has indicated the upcoming GMC Hummer will push up into 400-mile territory.

Those figures should come with big asterisks, however, as they will be impacted significantly – and, likely, quite severely – by a variety of different factors. These include not only the payload a truck is carrying, and the trailer it’s towing, but also by weather conditions. Studies by TheDetroitBureau.com, AAA and Consumer Reports have all indicated that EV range routinely drops by more than 40% when the mercury falls to 20 degrees Fahrenheit.

(Ford electric prototype hauls 1 million pounds.)

That could prove to be a difficult hurdle to clear when pitching to commercial and professional buyers, as many of the manufacturers are planning with their BEV pickups.

The system could also be used as a workplace generator, like the ones that will be offered on the various Ford F-150 pickups for 2021.

Eliminating range anxiety with a built-in generator could overcome that problem. And the way the Ford patent application has been put together indicates the company envisions its extender to be a removable, rather than fixed, part of the F-150 EV’s design. If so, an owner or operator could plug it into the bed only when needed to boost range, removing it to free up bed space at other times.

According to the application, the range-extender design could store as much as 15 gallons of fuel, enough to boost range substantially between fill and charge ups.

In its application, Ford noted that the “toolbox” shaped generator could be “removably positioned within the cargo space and adapted to selectively output power for either charging the battery pack or propelling the (electrically motorized) drive wheels.”

Of course, the big question will likely be one of cost. Ford has not mentioned pricing for the range-extender package. And purchase price is just part of the equation. As far as fleets and other commercial users are concerned, one of the big selling points for EVs is their low operating cost. Adding a range extender could throw that equation out of balance.

Automakers frequently file patents that never make it into production, of course, so it is far from clear that it ever actually will offer the range-extender technology – and, if so, when.

(BMW unplugs range-extending i3 REx.)

The Ford F-150 Electric pickup itself is scheduled to go on sale sometime in 2022, around the time we’ll begin seeing competitive truck BEVs like the GMC Hummer, Rivian R1T and Tesla Cybertruck.

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A Week With: 2020 Toyota Prius XLE

September 29, 2020 admin

The 2020 Toyota Prius XLE offers good, green transportation for buyers.

The Prius has been around for a long time, going back to the end of the last century when its introduction forever changed the way consumers and manufacturers look at powertrains by using batteries and electric motors.

This little hybrid began the slow but inexorable shift away from gasoline-driven automobiles that has spurred the development and production of vehicles like the Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Bolt and, of course, Tesla’s entire line-up.

Overall: For anyone still interested in fuel economy, the 2020 Toyota Prius XLE is still a champ with combined 50 mpg rating from the Environmental Protection Agency. However, once considered pricey, the Toyota Prius now carries a relatively modest sticker price by today’s standards.

(Toyota marks 20th anniversary of “The Car That Changed an Industry” with special edition Prius.)

The new Prius still features one of the most recognizable exterior shapes in the market.

In fact, it is well below the average of vehicles sold in the United States of $31,755. It’s also proven to be durable and appears to have captured – or at least earned permanent place – the hearts of American motorists, which belies all the millions of words of snark and criticism sent its way throughout the years.

Its zero to 60 time remains mired, we would guess, in the double-digit range. But it is versatile and still really is one of the greenest of green vehicles on the road after all these years, getting better than 56 miles per gallon in the city.

Exterior: The five-door hatchback shape of the Prius makes it easily one of the most recognizable vehicles on the road. Even people who couldn’t care less about automobile design can recognize a Prius almost instantly.

“…Say what you will about its exterior shape, it is one of the few designs of the past two decades to have carved out a distinctive niche in automotive lore…”

That said, the face of 2020 Toyota Prius has been altered to give the car a more contemporary look. There also LED lights and the wheel have been dressed up, providing the car with more curb appeal.

The Prius comes complete with plenty of technology, including Apple CarPlay integrated into the infotainment system.

Interior: At its heart, the Prius is a compact car. But the interior also is comfortable, and the controls and the center stack is within easy reach of the driver’s seat. The materials used throughout the cabin of this version of the Prius has been upgraded from past when the interior had the distinct aura of cost cutting that worked against the vehicle’s technical virtues.

The seats are supportive with the rear seats being quite usable. The car’s interior is quite versatile with fold-down seats that increase the car’s capacity for carrying cargo or extra luggage and the area under the hatch can even accommodate a set of golf clubs. The visibility from the driver’s seat is excellent. However, the security shade that covers the cargo area tends to interfere visibility.

(Q&A: Toyota’s hydrogen chief Jackie Birdsall.)

Powertrain: Toyota has been tinkering with the hybrid drive system that utilizes nickel-metal hydride batteries, electric motors and a 1.8-liter double overhead cam four-cylinder engine. In the 2020 Prius XLE, the basic front-wheel-drive layout has been augmented by an electronic all-wheel-drive system.

The Prius offers plenty of room for five passengers.

Overall the system produces 121 horsepower and 105 pound-feet of torque. The 2020 Prius can operate solely on electric power in slow traffic for short distances. However, once the speed picks up, Synergy drive, unique to Toyota, is designed to connect the gasoline engine, electric motor and generator into one operating unit.

Safety and Technology: The 2020 Toyota Prius XLE that we drove was loaded with technology and safety features For 2020, the Prius offers Bluetooth a new Toyota Audio 7-inch Touch-Screen Display on L Eco, LE and XLE, new Apple CarPlay and Amazon Alexa Compatibility standard on all model grades and newly standard Safety Connect on all grades.

The rear passenger seats also have been equipped with USB ports. The safety equipment on the XLE includes driver assistance features such as lane-keeping and blind-spot monitoring and pedestrian alert. The XLE version I drove also came with a head-up display and automatic headlines that turn on dark roads and off when there is oncoming traffic.

Driving Impressions: Throughout the years, Prius has come under fire due to complaints about its sluggish performance. We found the 2020 Toyota Prius XLE is still rather sluggish in certain situations on the highway.

The powertrain performed well. There is plenty of torque, coming off a standing start and the regenerative brakes add stopping power and the shifts are seem virtually invisible because they were so seamless. The steering wasn’t as crisp as in conventional sedan but the Prius delivered a smooth, steady ride and handled curves and varied pavement conditions easily.

(Sales sliding, Toyota rethinks future of the Prius.)

Wrap Up: The Prius has been a mainstay of the Toyota line-up for years and while it may not be th most fashionable passenger car on the road today – and let’s face it, the automotive industry is nothing if not acutely fashion conscious – it has proven itself to be a versatile and reliable vehicle for urban and suburban driving.

The drop in fuel prices has diminished some of its appeal, but it is still one of the most efficient vehicles on the road today. As it prices come come into line with other sedans and crossovers available on dealer lots these days, it does offer the added benefit of being more environmentally friendly than other vehicle choices. The fact that the vehicle introduced years ago and hasn’t been scrapped underscores its durable character.

Tesla Chooses Texas for Next Gigafactory

July 23, 2020 admin

In case you were wondering if Texas or Oklahoma was the site for the new Gigafactory, that’s Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas on the left.

Things are coming up roses for Tesla these days – yellow roses – as the California-based EV maker announced it will build its next Gigafactory on a 2,000-acre plot of land just outside Austin, Texas.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed the choice – Tulsa, Oklahoma was the other finalist – during the company’s second quarter earnings call. He said the site, which is on the banks of the Colorado River, would be an “ecological paradise” with a hiking and biking trail open to the public, should open sometime next year.

The plant, dubbed GigaTexas, will build a variety of vehicles, including the new Cybertruck and the Tesla semi. It will also handle Model 3 and Model Y production for the eastern half of North America. He also noted that Tulsa could still be in line for a future factory. After announcement, Musk was quick to point out the company will still grow in California.

(Tesla reports $104M Q2 profit; fourth consecutive quarter of profits.)

“We expect California to do Model X and S for worldwide consumption, and 3 and Y for the western half of North America. We also think the Tesla Roadster … would make sense in California. I think this is a nice split between Texas and California.”

Tesla’s Cybertruck is one of four products that the company will build at GigaTexas once it’s complete.

In addition to what is going to get built where in the U.S., Musk addressed potential future products and how they fit into the company’s plans.

“It would be reasonable to assume we’d make a compact vehicle of some kind, and probably a high capacity vehicle of some kind,” he said. “These are likely things at some point. I do think there’s a long way to go with 3 and Y, Cybertruck and semi. There’s a long way to go with those. I think we’ll do the obvious things.”

While future product is critical to the company’s long-term growth, Musk says he’s got his eyes on a short-term prize: full-self driving. The CEO has long predicted that (insert year here) will be when FSD will be available in vehicles.

However, after years of missed deadlines, the company may be on track to meet his latest goal of having it available sometime this year. He called it the “most important thing” on his very full agenda, adding “everything else is pretty small by comparison.”

(Texas offers Tesla $80M in incentives for new gigafactory.)

Musk has been selling the FSD to buyers for several years now but increasing the price for the dormant technology during the past few years, starting at $5,000 to add it and now it sits at $8,000 and it’s going to get pricier as it gets closer to launch. However, there’s a good reason to charge so much money for the technology, Musk believes, as you’ll get what you pay for — and then some.

Tesla is getting ready to produce its first heavy-duty model, the all-electric Semi. It, too, will be built at the new plant in Texas.

“I think the upgrading of the fleet to full-self driving, essentially with an over-the-air software update, I mean may go down as the biggest asset value increase in history as a step change,” he said. “Overnight … you’d have like, I don’t know, a few million cars suddenly becoming five times more valuable.”

Those vehicles also become an even bigger revenue stream for Musk and Tesla as then he can begin to sell access for services, like shopping, games, movies, etc. that could be used by drivers as they allow their vehicle to drive them to their destination.

In fact, Musk is using an advanced test version of the technology now and says he can drive from his home to the office without intervention. While he wouldn’t commit to it being ready this year, he suggested he thought it would be, then it would be a matter of governmental approvals.

(CEO Musk sees big growth coming soon for Tesla.)

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